CSU-backed study puts steep price tag on Republican River groundwater curtailment

A Colorado State University-backed report released through the Colorado Water Center estimates a basin-wide halt to groundwater pumping in Colorado’s Republican River basin could cut annual regional revenue by about $656.2 million to $1.533 billion, depending on how land use changes after irrigation stops.

The estimate sharpens the stakes around the South Fork Focus Zone, where Colorado must retire 25,000 irrigated acres by Dec. 31, 2029, to avoid broader curtailment risk under the state’s Republican River Compact compliance framework. At a June 25 legislative hearing, basin general manager Don Brown said about 19,000 acres had been retired, with another couple thousand acres “in the queue,” putting the total around 21,000 to 22,000 acres.

The December 2025 report, funded under House Bill 23-1220, modeled the effects of ending groundwater irrigation across 526,431 irrigated acres in an eight-county study area.

Under its least severe scenario, the study estimated annual losses of about $656.2 million in revenue and 2,591 jobs. Under its most severe scenario — which added a 50% drop in demand for non-grazing livestock sectors — it estimated annual losses of about $1.533 billion in revenue and 5,263 jobs. The study also estimated Colorado tax revenue losses of about $11 million to $28 million a year.

The authors said the analysis has limits. Their input-output model does not capture every downstream effect, including some price changes and supply-chain shifts, and some economic activity could move elsewhere rather than disappear. They also described the livestock-demand shock in the worst-case scenario as an illustration, not a prediction.

On acreage retirement, the Republican River Water Conservation District says 19,188.88 of the required 25,000 acres have been retired through conservation programs. The Colorado Water Conservation Board says more than 17,000 acres had been retired as of spring 2025 and that Senate Bill 25-283 added $6 million to help retire the remaining nearly 8,000 acres.

Brown told lawmakers the district has assembled substantial funding, including roughly $155 million in local money, $30 million in federal ARPA support and $10 million from the Colorado Water Conservation Board. But the public record reviewed for this story does not fully itemize the local total or show how much is already spent, committed or still available for additional retirements.