Commerce City estimates need for 8,113 homes by 2033

Commerce City estimates it will need 8,113 homes by 2033 to address current housing gaps and accommodate projected household growth, the city’s Housing Needs Assessment says. The figure is a planning estimate of total need, not a count of homes under construction or a target limited to new construction.

The assessment estimates that about 6,255 homes were needed to address existing gaps in 2023, with roughly 1,900 more needed for projected household growth over the following decade. Its estimates use several assumptions: each overcrowded household counts as half a home of need; healthy vacancy rates are set at 5% for rentals and 2% for owner-occupied homes; and about one-quarter of people commuting into Commerce City might choose to live there if suitable housing were available. The assessment allocates need across income and housing types based on the city’s existing household mix and uses a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development area median family income of $125,500 to approximate income tiers.

Housing permitting has recently been below the pace implied by the estimate. A city consultant presentation reports an average of 476 units permitted annually in 2024 and 2025, compared with an 872-unit annual average from 2020 through 2025. If the recent two-year rate continued for eight years, it would yield 3,808 permitted units—less than half the estimated need. Permits do not establish how many homes will be completed or whether they will meet identified needs; the presentation says the permitted units’ tenure and affordability are unknown, the city and its consultants reported.

The largest affordability gaps are rental homes for households earning below 80% of area median income and ownership homes affordable to households earning 51% to 120% of that measure. The assessment also identifies industrial and logistics workers, multigenerational and Latino households—including larger households at risk of overcrowding—and fixed-income seniors seeking to age in place as groups with distinct housing needs. It does not break down the total estimated need by these groups.

A separate displacement-risk analysis flags overlapping mapped areas where about 7,750 households live, including nine existing manufactured-home parks. The consultant presentation says the analysis overlays economic indicators with demographic data, including renter share, income, housing age, cost burden, education, race and ethnicity, disability and housing-market conditions. The overlapping tracts have comparatively more renters and homes built before 1970. The household count describes people living in the mapped areas; it does not mean each household was individually determined to face displacement, the consultant presentation says.

The city presentation lists 4,322 homes in subdivisions under review or recently approved and awaiting construction. The pipeline includes detached, attached and multifamily homes, but does not establish when or whether all will be built or how affordable they will be. Current zoning is estimated to have capacity for 25,000 to 33,000 additional homes; that is potential capacity, not completed supply.

Commerce City is developing a Housing Action Plan to translate the assessment into future policy steps, regulatory changes and funding tools. The city hired ECOnorthwest and MIG for work expected to run from June 2026 through June 2027. City Council and the Planning Commission are scheduled to discuss the assessment’s gap analysis and draft plan goals at a joint study session Oct. 26. The session is for discussion, with no official action requested.

The city’s draft goals include housing for people at all stages of life, safe and lasting homes, greater affordability across income levels, and helping residents remain in their community. Specific strategies and measures are still being developed, according to the city’s council communication.